Utilities Electricity Grid trends — United Kingdom (location-based)
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
- Category
- Utilities
- Geography
- United Kingdom
- Basis
- location-based
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kWh
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -29.5% | -28.8% | -11.2% |
| 2026 | -31.3% | -37.1% | -22.5% |
| 2027 | -42.4% | -45.6% | -33.7% |
| 2028 | -44.0% | -48.5% | -45.0% |
| 2029 | -44.2% | -50.0% | -56.2% |
| 2030 | -38.5% | -48.3% | -67.5% |
| 2031 | -38.9% | -49.3% | -67.5% |
| 2032 | -36.8% | -48.5% | -67.5% |
| 2033 | -33.1% | -47.2% | -67.5% |
| 2034 | -29.2% | -45.7% | -67.5% |
| 2035 | -25.8% | -43.5% | -67.5% |
| 2036 | -28.0% | -44.8% | -67.5% |
| 2037 | -29.4% | -45.3% | -67.5% |
| 2038 | -29.5% | -45.1% | -67.5% |
| 2039 | -29.9% | -45.4% | -67.5% |
| 2040 | -30.7% | -45.7% | -67.5% |
| 2041 | -29.3% | -44.4% | -67.5% |
| 2042 | -27.4% | -42.7% | -67.5% |
| 2043 | -26.4% | -41.7% | -67.5% |
| 2044 | -25.3% | -40.7% | -67.5% |
| 2045 | -25.3% | -40.7% | -67.5% |
| 2046 | -25.5% | -40.3% | -67.5% |
| 2047 | -25.0% | -39.8% | -67.5% |
| 2048 | -22.7% | -38.9% | -67.5% |
| 2049 | -22.8% | -40.4% | -67.5% |
| 2050 | -21.1% | -40.7% | -67.5% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Weighted projection between sources
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clean Power 2030
In a typical weather year, the 2030 power system will see clean sources produce at least as much power as Great Britain consumes in total over the whole year, and at least 95% of Great Britain’s generation; reducing the carbon intensity of our generation from 171gCO2e/kWh in 2023 to well below 50gCO2e/kWh in 2030. |
Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (Updated 15 April 2025), was a DESNZ scenario that outlined the necessary changes to achieve a power grid emission factor of 50 gCO2e/kWh by 2030, in preparation for the rapid growth in electrification as a result of increasing demand from transport, buildings and industry sectors. DESNZ "accepted independent advice from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), on the energy infrastructure required to deliver Clean Power 2030. In a typical weather year, the 2030 power system will see clean sources produce at least as much power as Great Britain consumes in total over the whole year, and at least 95% of Great Britain’s generation; reducing the carbon intensity of our generation from 171gCO2e/kWh in 2023 to well below 50gCO2e/kWh in 2030." |
forecast | ambitious | 1.8258762181130557 |
|
DESNZ EEP Existing
The “With Existing Measures (WEM)” policy scenario only includes policies that have already been implemented. This is the scenario used for international reporting to UNFCCC. |
Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes annual projections of UK energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (EEP). This trend is from the latest projections, Energy and Emissions Projections 2024-2050 (EEP 2024-2050), published in February 2026. Power sector emissions (Annex C) are divided by the Total electricity generation by source (Annex J). |
forecast | base | 1.7579505932823387 |
|
DESNZ EEP Reference
The EEP reference scenario is DESNZ core analysis of how the UK energy and emissions system could evolve under EEP-ready policies and our central assumptions about how the system drivers will change. They are the baseline or counterfactual projection showing what the UK would expect to happen if no policies at an earlier stage of development were implemented. |
Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes annual projections of UK energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (EEP). This trend is from the latest projections, Energy and Emissions Projections 2024-2050 (EEP 2024-2050), published in February 2026. Power sector emissions (Annex C) are divided by the Total electricity generation by source (Annex J). |
forecast | ambitious | 1.7579505932823387 |
|
DESNZ EEP FFP Low
The FFP Low scenario is similar to the EEP Reference analysis, but with the assumption that fossil fuels (FF) remain low. |
Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes annual projections of UK energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (EEP). This trend is from the latest projections, Energy and Emissions Projections 2024-2050 (EEP 2024-2050), published in February 2026. Power sector emissions (Annex C) are divided by the Total electricity generation by source (Annex J). |
forecast | pessimistic | 1.7579505932823387 |
|
DESNZ EEP FFP High
The FFP High scenario is similar to the EEP Reference analysis, but with the assumption that fossil fuels (FF) rise. |
Department for Energy Security & Net Zero
The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes annual projections of UK energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (EEP). This trend is from the latest projections, Energy and Emissions Projections 2024-2050 (EEP 2024-2050), published in February 2026. Power sector emissions (Annex C) are divided by the Total electricity generation by source (Annex J). |
forecast | moderate | 1.7579505932823387 |
Changelog
- — Initial version
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (forecast) year=2023, pedigree_score=1.6114288255590357.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 2 source(s).
- — Refreshed quality.recency and pedigree_score from publication years (as-of 2025). VP mid weights affected for: source1.
- — Updated source2 from Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.3512498725672673.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 2 source(s).
- — Refreshed quality.recency and pedigree_score from publication years (as-of 2024). VP mid weights affected for: source1.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source3 from Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.7579505932823387.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 3 source(s).
- — Refreshed quality.recency and pedigree_score from publication years (as-of 2026). VP mid weights affected for: source1, source2.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source4 from Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.7579505932823387.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 4 source(s).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source5 from Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.7579505932823387.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 5 source(s).
Frequently asked questions
What is driving utilities electricity grid decarbonisation in United Kingdom?
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor Weighted projection between sources
What range of outcomes does this trend cover?
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
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